Scenarios

Now that you have been exposed to the concept of the scenario and have experienced some examples of how a scenario can be constructed, and deconstructed, the final step is to start building your own scenario. Of course, a scenario can never be a finished product, because social reality is a process that never stops. But there are certain building blocks that are essential for any scenario. The following section will outline the most important of these building blocks. They are meant to inspire you to think
creatively about developing your own scenario, not restrict you to a set of formal rules.

Before you start building your own scenario, it is important to be very clear on what a scenario specifically entails. The following definition is useful as a first orientation: A scenario is a description of the present condition of a society (or a part of one), of possible and desirable future conditions of that society, and of sets of events that may lead from the present condition to those future conditions. (Werkstukken Planning en Beleid, nummer 19, p.III)

What are the fundamental elements of a scenario project?

  1. basic analysis: analyzing the present condition
  2. future analyses: probing various possible developments
  3. end state designs: developing designs of possible and desirable future conditions, followed by critical analysis of these designs
  4. end state processes: developing measures and organizations that could achieve end state designs, followed by critical analysis
What are the stages involved in a scenario project?
  1.  preliminary phase: problem analysis, preliminary designs, performing general "basic analysis" and "future analyses" (often in form of preliminary research)
  2. elaboration phase: performing more specific "basic analysis" and "future analyses", definitive design
  3. final phase: intensive critical discussion of concepts, final report, conclusions for further scenario projects
REMEMBER: this part requires intensive consulting with your supervisor!

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